Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Heerenveen
NEC NijmegenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 51%; the best price of 1.98 implies 51%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.5 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Heerenveen WLWDL, NEC Nijmegen DDDLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.5 and 1.5 xG.
Expected goals 1.5–1.5, 3.0 in total.
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Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen preview
Eredivisie action on Saturday 31 October sees NEC Nijmegen travel to face Heerenveen. Heerenveen sit 9th in the table on 12 points from 9 games, while NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 10 points. Recent results matter here: Heerenveen have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLWDL) and NEC Nijmegen have not won any of their last five (four draws, one defeat) (DDDLD). Heerenveen average 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, compared with 1.7 and 1.8 for NEC Nijmegen. Our model expects around 1.5 goals for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC Nijmegen, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Heerenveen 49% to win, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 28%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 53%, 24% and 27%. Our verdict is NEC Nijmegen or draw: we rate it at 51%, against 51% implied by the best price of 1.98. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen win | 49% | 1.87 | 53% | -8% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.22 | 24% | -1% |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 28% | 3.71 | 27% | +2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.44 | 69% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.88 | 35% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.42 | 70% | -8% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 2.77 | 36% | -3% |
| Heerenveen or draw | 72% | 1.31 | 76% | -5% |
| NEC Nijmegen or draw | 51% | 1.98 | 51% | +1% |
| Either team to win | 77% | 1.25 | 80% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 1.5 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.5 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen | 13% |
| Heerenveen 1–2 NEC Nijmegen | 8% |
| Heerenveen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen | |
| NEC Nijmegen |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 9th | 12 | 9 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 13th | 10 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.60 (63%) | 2.25 (44%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: FAQ
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
We make Heerenveen 49% to win, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 28%, so Heerenveen are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Heerenveen the shorter price. Our verdict is NEC Nijmegen or draw at 51%.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 70% implied by the best price of 1.42. Our expected goals are 1.5 for Heerenveen and 1.5 for NEC Nijmegen.
How many goals in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.44. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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