Excelsior vs Twente prediction
Excelsior
TwenteNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 63%; the best price of 1.50 implies 67%
- Expected goals 1.3–2.1, so 67% for over 2.5 and 63% for both to score
- Last five: Excelsior LLDLD, Twente LDWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.3–2.1, 3.5 in total.
Our model gives Twente the win 61%.
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Excelsior vs Twente preview
Excelsior welcome Twente on Sunday 1 November in the Eredivisie. In the standings, Twente are 5th on 17 points from 9 games and Excelsior 12th on 11 points from 9 games. That puts Twente seven places higher. On form, Excelsior have not won any of their last five (two draws, three defeats) (LLDLD), while Twente have won three of their last five (LDWWW). In front of goal, Excelsior score 1.8 and concede 2.0 a game on average; Twente score 1.9 and concede 1.1. On expected goals we have Excelsior at 1.3 and Twente at 2.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 63%. We make Excelsior 19% to win, the draw 21% and Twente 61%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 19%, 21% and 64%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 63%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 19% | 5.40 | 19% | +0% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | 21% | -2% |
| Twente win | 61% | 1.57 | 64% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.44 | 69% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 2.90 | 34% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 1.50 | 67% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 37% | 2.50 | 40% | -7% |
| Excelsior or draw | 39% | 2.50 | 40% | -1% |
| Twente or draw | 81% | 1.17 | 85% | -5% |
| Either team to win | 79% | 1.22 | 82% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Excelsior | 1.3 |
| Twente | 2.1 |
| Total | 3.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Excelsior 1–1 Twente | 10% |
| Excelsior 1–2 Twente | 9% |
| Excelsior 0–2 Twente | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Excelsior | |
| Twente |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 12th | 11 | 9 |
| Twente | 5th | 17 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Twente | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.83 (55%) | 1.83 (55%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Excelsior vs Twente: FAQ
Who will win Excelsior vs Twente?
We make Excelsior 19% to win, the draw 21% and Twente 61%, so Twente are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Twente the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 63%.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Twente?
We give both teams to score a 63% chance, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Excelsior and 2.1 for Twente.
How many goals in Excelsior vs Twente?
Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 67% and under 2.5 at 33%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.44. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Excelsior vs Twente kick off?
Excelsior vs Twente kicks off at 13:30 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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