Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction
Groningen
Sparta RotterdamNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 68%; the best price of 1.45 implies 69%
- Expected goals 2.4–2.1, so 68% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: Groningen LWWDD, Sparta Rotterdam WDLLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.4 and 2.1 xG.
Our model gives Groningen the win 58%.
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Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam preview
Groningen welcome Sparta Rotterdam on Sunday 1 November in the Eredivisie. In the standings, Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 9 points from 9 games and Groningen 8th on 14 points from 9 games. That puts Groningen six places higher. Recent results matter here: Groningen have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (LWWDD) and Sparta Rotterdam have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (WDLLD). Groningen average 2.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game, compared with 1.8 and 2.4 for Sparta Rotterdam. Our model expects around 2.4 goals for Groningen and 2.1 for Sparta Rotterdam, and 2–2 is the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Groningen 58% to win, the draw 21% and Sparta Rotterdam 21%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 61%, 22% and 20%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 68%, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.45. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 58% | 1.63 | 61% | -6% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.59 | 22% | -3% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 21% | 5.10 | 20% | +8% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.45 | 69% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 2.88 | 35% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.50 | 67% | -2% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 2.56 | 39% | -11% |
| Groningen or draw | 79% | 1.20 | 83% | -5% |
| Sparta Rotterdam or draw | 42% | 2.42 | 41% | +2% |
| Either team to win | 79% | 1.22 | 82% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Groningen | 2.4 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 2.1 |
| Total | 4.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Groningen 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam | 7% |
| Groningen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 7% |
| Groningen 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 6% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Groningen | |
| Sparta Rotterdam |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 8th | 14 | 9 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 14th | 9 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.8 | 2.4 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.45 (69%) | 2.65 (38%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: FAQ
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We make Groningen 58% to win, the draw 21% and Sparta Rotterdam 21%, so Groningen are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Groningen the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. Our expected goals are 2.4 for Groningen and 2.1 for Sparta Rotterdam.
How many goals in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model expects about 4.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and under 2.5 at 32%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.45. The single most likely score is 2–2.
What time does Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicks off at 15:45 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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