Willem II vs PEC Zwolle prediction
Willem II
PEC ZwolleNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.50 implies 67%
- Expected goals 1.3–2.1, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Willem II LLLLL, PEC Zwolle DWLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 70% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.3 and 2.1 xG.
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Willem II vs PEC Zwolle preview
Willem II host PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie on Friday 6 November. Willem II sit 18th in the table on 2 points from 10 games, while PEC Zwolle are 15th with 8 points. PEC Zwolle come into it having lost three of their last five (DWLLL); Willem II have lost each of their last five (LLLLL). In front of goal, Willem II score 1.0 and concede 3.2 a game on average; PEC Zwolle score 1.1 and concede 2.3. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Willem II and 2.1 for PEC Zwolle, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. We make Willem II 30% to win, the draw 25% and PEC Zwolle 46%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 31%, 26% and 46%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II win | 30% | 3.20 | 31% | -5% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 | 26% | -4% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 46% | 2.17 | 46% | -1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.50 | 67% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.70 | 37% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.44 | 69% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 34% | 2.75 | 36% | -5% |
| Willem II or draw | 54% | 1.75 | 57% | -5% |
| PEC Zwolle or draw | 70% | 1.40 | 71% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.27 | 79% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Willem II | 1.3 |
| PEC Zwolle | 2.1 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Willem II 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 10% |
| Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle | 10% |
| Willem II 0–2 PEC Zwolle | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Willem II | |
| PEC Zwolle |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 18th | 2 | 10 |
| PEC Zwolle | 15th | 8 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| PEC Zwolle | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: FAQ
Who will win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
We make Willem II 30% to win, the draw 25% and PEC Zwolle 46%, so PEC Zwolle are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with PEC Zwolle the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Willem II and 2.1 for PEC Zwolle.
How many goals in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.50. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Friday 6 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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