Barcelona vs Alaves prediction
Barcelona
AlavesNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 53%; the best price of 1.82 implies 55%
- Expected goals 2.5–1.0, so 74% for over 2.5 and 53% for both to score
- Last five: Barcelona WWWWW, Alaves DLLDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Barcelona the win 84%.
Expected goals 2.5–1.0, 3.5 in total.
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Barcelona vs Alaves preview
Barcelona welcome Alaves on Saturday 31 October in La Liga. In the standings, Alaves are 7th on 12 points from 10 games and Barcelona 1st on 27 points from 9 games. That puts Barcelona six places higher. Alaves come into it having not won any of their last five (two draws, three defeats) (DLLDL); Barcelona have won each of their last five (WWWWW). Barcelona average 4.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.1 for Alaves. On expected goals we have Barcelona at 2.5 and Alaves at 1.0, with 2–0 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 53%. We make Barcelona 84% to win, the draw 11% and Alaves 5%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 86%, 10% and 4%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 53%, against 55% implied by the best price of 1.82. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 84% | 1.16 | 86% | -3% |
| Draw | 11% | 10.40 | 10% | +14% |
| Alaves win | 5% | 24.00 | 4% | +27% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 1.26 | 79% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26% | 4.00 | 25% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 1.82 | 55% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 47% | 1.95 | 51% | -9% |
| Barcelona or draw | 95% | 1.03 | 97% | -2% |
| Alaves or draw | 16% | 6.80 | 15% | +10% |
| Either team to win | 89% | 1.10 | 91% | -2% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | 2.5 |
| Alaves | 1.0 |
| Total | 3.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Barcelona 2–0 Alaves | 10% |
| Barcelona 2–1 Alaves | 9% |
| Barcelona 1–1 Alaves | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | |
| Alaves |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1st | 27 | 9 |
| Alaves | 7th | 12 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.52 (66%) | 2.30 (43%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Barcelona vs Alaves: FAQ
Who will win Barcelona vs Alaves?
We make Barcelona 84% to win, the draw 11% and Alaves 5%, so Barcelona are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Barcelona the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 53%.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Alaves?
We give both teams to score a 53% chance, against 55% implied by the best price of 1.82. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Barcelona and 1.0 for Alaves.
How many goals in Barcelona vs Alaves?
Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 74% and under 2.5 at 26%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.26. The single most likely score is 2–0.
What time does Barcelona vs Alaves kick off?
Barcelona vs Alaves kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in La Liga.
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