Elche vs Valencia prediction
Elche
ValenciaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 63%; the best price of 1.58 implies 63%
- Expected goals 1.3–1.7 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Elche WDDWL, Valencia LDDLW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.3 and 1.7 xG.
Build your bet slip
Elche vs Valencia preview
Elche welcome Valencia on Sunday 1 November in La Liga. Elche sit 14th in the table on 10 points from 10 games, while Valencia are 19th with 6 points. Valencia come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LDDLW); Elche have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WDDWL). Elche average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, compared with 0.7 and 1.7 for Valencia. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Elche and 1.7 for Valencia, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. We make Elche 37% to win, the draw 28% and Valencia 35%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 39%, 28% and 34%. Our verdict is Valencia or draw: we rate it at 63%, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.58. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche win | 37% | 2.56 | 39% | -5% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | 28% | -2% |
| Valencia win | 35% | 2.96 | 34% | +4% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 50% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.93 | 52% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 1.75 | 57% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 45% | 2.10 | 48% | -6% |
| Elche or draw | 65% | 1.47 | 68% | -4% |
| Valencia or draw | 63% | 1.58 | 63% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 72% | 1.35 | 74% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Elche | 1.3 |
| Valencia | 1.7 |
| Total | 3.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Elche 1–1 Valencia | 12% |
| Elche 1–2 Valencia | 9% |
| Elche 0–2 Valencia | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Elche | |
| Valencia |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 14th | 10 | 10 |
| Valencia | 19th | 6 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Valencia | 0.7 | 1.7 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.60 (63%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Elche vs Valencia: FAQ
Who will win Elche vs Valencia?
We make Elche 37% to win, the draw 28% and Valencia 35%, so Elche are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Elche the shorter price. Our verdict is Valencia or draw at 63%.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Valencia?
We give both teams to score a 55% chance, against 57% implied by the best price of 1.75. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Elche and 1.7 for Valencia.
How many goals in Elche vs Valencia?
Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and under 2.5 at 50%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.01. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Elche vs Valencia kick off?
Elche vs Valencia kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in La Liga.
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