Levante vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Levante
Atletico MadridNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.56 implies 64%
- Expected goals 1.9–2.2, so 64% for over 2.5 and 61% for both to score
- Last five: Levante WDDLL, Atletico Madrid WWWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.9 and 2.2 xG.
Our model gives Atletico Madrid the win 57%.
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Levante vs Atletico Madrid preview
La Liga action on Saturday 31 October sees Atletico Madrid travel to face Levante. In the standings, Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games and Levante 13th on 10 points from 9 games. That puts Atletico Madrid 11 places higher. On form, Levante have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (WDDLL), while Atletico Madrid have won each of their last five (WWWWW). Levante average 1.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, compared with 2.1 and 0.9 for Atletico Madrid. On expected goals we have Levante at 1.9 and Atletico Madrid at 2.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (8%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 61%. We make Levante 21% to win, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 57%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 19%, 22% and 61%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.56. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 21% | 5.24 | 19% | +10% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.59 | 22% | -1% |
| Atletico Madrid win | 57% | 1.65 | 61% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 64% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.55 | 39% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.62 | 62% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 39% | 2.27 | 44% | -12% |
| Levante or draw | 43% | 2.38 | 42% | +1% |
| Atletico Madrid or draw | 79% | 1.22 | 82% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 78% | 1.24 | 81% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Levante | 1.9 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.2 |
| Total | 4.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Levante 1–1 Atletico Madrid | 8% |
| Levante 1–2 Atletico Madrid | 8% |
| Levante 2–2 Atletico Madrid | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Levante | |
| Atletico Madrid |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 13th | 10 | 9 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2nd | 22 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.1 | 0.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.95 (51%) | 1.85 (54%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid: FAQ
Who will win Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
We make Levante 21% to win, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 57%, so Atletico Madrid are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Atletico Madrid the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
We give both teams to score a 61% chance, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Levante and 2.2 for Atletico Madrid.
How many goals in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model expects about 4.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.56. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Levante vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Levante vs Atletico Madrid kicks off at 13:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in La Liga.
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