Sevilla vs Alaves prediction
Sevilla
AlavesNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%; the best price of 1.73 implies 58%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.1, so 43% for over 2.5 and 49% for both to score
- Last five: Sevilla WLDLW, Alaves DLLDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 74% combined.
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Sevilla vs Alaves preview
Sevilla host Alaves in La Liga on Friday 6 November. Sevilla sit 6th in the table on 17 points from 10 games, while Alaves are 7th with 12 points. Recent results matter here: Sevilla have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLDLW) and Alaves have not won any of their last five (two draws, three defeats) (DLLDL). Sevilla average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.1 for Alaves. Our model expects around 1.4 goals for Sevilla and 1.1 for Alaves, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. We make Sevilla 45% to win, the draw 29% and Alaves 26%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 29% and 26%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 57%, against 58% implied by the best price of 1.73. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 45% | 2.15 | 47% | -2% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | 29% | -1% |
| Alaves win | 26% | 3.86 | 26% | 0% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.28 | 44% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.73 | 58% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 1.95 | 51% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 51% | 1.85 | 54% | -6% |
| Sevilla or draw | 74% | 1.30 | 77% | -4% |
| Alaves or draw | 55% | 1.78 | 56% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 71% | 1.36 | 74% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.4 |
| Alaves | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sevilla 1–1 Alaves | 14% |
| Sevilla 1–0 Alaves | 10% |
| Sevilla 0–0 Alaves | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sevilla | |
| Alaves |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 6th | 17 | 10 |
| Alaves | 7th | 12 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Sevilla vs Alaves: FAQ
Who will win Sevilla vs Alaves?
We make Sevilla 45% to win, the draw 29% and Alaves 26%, so Sevilla are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Sevilla the shorter price. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
We give both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% implied by the best price of 1.95. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Sevilla and 1.1 for Alaves.
How many goals in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and under 2.5 at 57%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.28. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sevilla vs Alaves kick off?
Sevilla vs Alaves kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Friday 6 November 2026, in La Liga.
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