La Liga

Valencia vs Villarreal prediction

La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Valencia

1–2

Full time

Villarreal

Result: Valencia 1–2 Villarreal

Pick	Outcome
Villarreal or draw	Won
Both teams to score	Won

Settled on our public track record.

Our verdict · Both teams to score

Both teams to score Won

Our chance57%

Best price1.62

Fair odds1.76

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 53%
Expected goals 1.0–1.6, so 47% for over 2.5 and 51% for both to score
Last five: Valencia DDLWL, Villarreal DLWWL
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Double chance

Villarreal or draw

74%

@ 1.35

Won

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Valencia vs Villarreal preview

Valencia hosted Villarreal in La Liga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Villarreal are 14th on 9 points from 9 games and Valencia 19th on 6 points from 9 games. Recent results matter here: Valencia have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (DDLWL) and Villarreal have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (DLWWL). Valencia average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.4 for Villarreal. On expected goals we have Valencia at 1.0 and Villarreal at 1.6, with 1–1 the most likely score (13%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Valencia 26% to win, the draw 27% and Villarreal 47%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 28%, 27% and 46%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 57%, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Valencia win	26%	3.55	28%	-7%
Draw	27%	3.74	27%	+0%
Villarreal win	47%	2.17	46%	+2%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.79	56%	-5%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.18	46%	+3%
Both teams to score	57%	1.62	62%	-8%
Not both to score	43%	2.30	43%	0%
Valencia or draw	53%	1.78	56%	-6%
Villarreal or draw	74%	1.35	74%	0%
Either team to win	73%	1.32	76%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Valencia	1.0
Villarreal	1.6
Total	2.6

Most likely scores	Chance
Valencia 1–1 Villarreal	13%
Valencia 0–1 Villarreal	11%
Valencia 0–2 Villarreal	10%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Valencia
Villarreal

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Valencia	19th	6	9
Villarreal	14th	9	9

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Valencia	0.7	1.7
Villarreal	1.4	1.4

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.90 (53%)	2.01 (50%)
Cards 3.5	1.27 (79%)	3.50 (29%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Valencia vs Villarreal: FAQ

Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?

The match finished Valencia 1–2 Villarreal. Before kick-off we made Valencia 26% to win, the draw 27% and Villarreal 47%, so Villarreal were the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Villarreal the shorter price. Our verdict was Both teams to score at 57%.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?

We gave both teams to score a 57% chance, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Valencia and 1.6 for Villarreal. In the end, both teams did score.

How many goals in Valencia vs Villarreal?

Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and under 2.5 at 47%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.79. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 1–2, 3 goals in all.

What time does Valencia vs Villarreal kick off?

Valencia vs Villarreal kicked off at 16:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in La Liga.