Ligue 1

Lens vs Paris FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Saturday 24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lens

0–0

22′

Paris FC

Our verdict · Double chance

Lens or draw

Our chance66%

Best price1.50

Fair odds1.51

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 66%; the best price of 1.50 implies 67%
Expected goals 1.6–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
Last five: Lens WWLDL, Paris FC WLWDW
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Both teams to score

61%

@ 1.53

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Lens vs Paris FC preview

Lens are hosting Paris FC in Ligue 1 on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Paris FC are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games and Lens 9th on 10 points from 7 games. That puts Paris FC six places higher. On form, Lens have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WWLDL), while Paris FC have won three of their last five (WLWDW). In front of goal, Lens score 2.0 and concede 1.6 a game on average; Paris FC score 1.7 and concede 1.0.

Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Lens and 1.2 for Paris FC, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%. We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. We make Lens 39% to win, the draw 27% and Paris FC 34%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 38%, 27% and 36%. Our verdict is Lens or draw: we rate it at 66%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Lens win	39%	2.65	38%	+4%
Draw	27%	3.66	27%	-1%
Paris FC win	34%	2.77	36%	-7%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.69	59%	-3%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.36	42%	+1%
Both teams to score	61%	1.53	65%	-7%
Not both to score	39%	2.50	40%	-3%
Lens or draw	66%	1.50	67%	-1%
Paris FC or draw	61%	1.55	65%	-6%
Either team to win	73%	1.33	75%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Lens	1.6
Paris FC	1.2
Total	2.9

Most likely scores	Chance
Lens 1–1 Paris FC	13%
Lens 2–1 Paris FC	9%
Lens 1–0 Paris FC	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Lens
Paris FC

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Lens	9th	10	7
Paris FC	3rd	14	7

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Lens	2.0	1.6
Paris FC	1.7	1.0

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.94 (52%)	1.95 (51%)
Cards 3.5	1.61 (62%)	2.45 (41%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Lens vs Paris FC: FAQ

Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?

We make Lens 39% to win, the draw 27% and Paris FC 34%, so Lens are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Lens the shorter price. Our verdict is Lens or draw at 66%.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Paris FC?

We give both teams to score a 61% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.53. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Lens and 1.2 for Paris FC.

How many goals in Lens vs Paris FC?

Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and under 2.5 at 43%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.69. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does Lens vs Paris FC kick off?

Lens vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:45 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Ligue 1.