Marseille vs Le Havre prediction
Marseille
Le HavreNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 63%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
- Expected goals 1.9–1.4, so 63% for over 2.5 and 59% for both to score
- Last five: Marseille WWLLL, Le Havre LLLDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Marseille the win 60%.
Both sides expected to score: 1.9 and 1.4 xG.
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Marseille vs Le Havre preview
Ligue 1 action on Sunday 25 October sees Le Havre travel to face Marseille. In the standings, Le Havre are 18th on 2 points from 7 games and Marseille 10th on 9 points from 7 games. That puts Marseille eight places higher. On form, Marseille have lost three of their last five (WWLLL), while Le Havre have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLDL). Marseille average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, compared with 0.7 and 1.6 for Le Havre. On expected goals we have Marseille at 1.9 and Le Havre at 1.4, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Marseille 60% to win, the draw 21% and Le Havre 19%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 63%, 20% and 18%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 63%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 60% | 1.60 | 63% | -4% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.91 | 20% | +2% |
| Le Havre win | 19% | 5.50 | 18% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.55 | 65% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.58 | 39% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 1.67 | 60% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 41% | 2.25 | 44% | -8% |
| Marseille or draw | 81% | 1.19 | 84% | -4% |
| Le Havre or draw | 40% | 2.50 | 40% | 0% |
| Either team to win | 79% | 1.22 | 82% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.9 |
| Le Havre | 1.4 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Marseille 1–1 Le Havre | 11% |
| Marseille 2–1 Le Havre | 9% |
| Marseille 2–0 Le Havre | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Marseille | |
| Le Havre |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 10th | 9 | 7 |
| Le Havre | 18th | 2 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Le Havre | 0.7 | 1.6 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.91 (52%) | 2.05 (49%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 2.20 (45%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Marseille vs Le Havre: FAQ
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
We make Marseille 60% to win, the draw 21% and Le Havre 19%, so Marseille are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Marseille the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Le Havre?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Marseille and 1.4 for Le Havre.
How many goals in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and under 2.5 at 37%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.55. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Marseille vs Le Havre kick off?
Marseille vs Le Havre kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
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