Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction
Toulouse
Estac TroyesNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%; the best price of 1.67 implies 60%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Toulouse WDWDL, Estac Troyes LLLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.4 and 1.2 xG.
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Toulouse vs Estac Troyes preview
Toulouse host Estac Troyes in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October. In the standings, Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 7 games and Toulouse 12th on 9 points from 7 games. Recent results matter here: Toulouse have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WDWDL) and Estac Troyes have lost each of their last five (LLLLL). Toulouse average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, compared with 0.7 and 2.3 for Estac Troyes. On expected goals we have Toulouse at 1.4 and Estac Troyes at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Toulouse 56% to win, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 20%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 60%, 23% and 18%. Our verdict is Toulouse to win: we rate it at 56%, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 56% | 1.67 | 60% | -6% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.41 | 23% | +4% |
| Estac Troyes win | 20% | 5.49 | 18% | +10% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.67 | 60% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.40 | 42% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 1.65 | 61% | -7% |
| Not both to score | 44% | 2.20 | 45% | -4% |
| Toulouse or draw | 80% | 1.19 | 84% | -5% |
| Estac Troyes or draw | 44% | 2.38 | 42% | +4% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.25 | 80% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.4 |
| Estac Troyes | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Toulouse 1–1 Estac Troyes | 14% |
| Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes | 9% |
| Toulouse 1–0 Estac Troyes | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Toulouse | |
| Estac Troyes |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 12th | 9 | 7 |
| Estac Troyes | 17th | 4 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Estac Troyes | 0.7 | 2.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.05 (49%) | 1.81 (55%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.83 (55%) | 2.10 (48%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: FAQ
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
We make Toulouse 56% to win, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 20%, so Toulouse are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Toulouse the shorter price. Our verdict is Toulouse to win at 56%.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
We give both teams to score a 56% chance, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Toulouse and 1.2 for Estac Troyes.
How many goals in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and under 2.5 at 44%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.67. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
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