Lille vs Lens prediction
Lille
LensNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 59%; the best price of 1.62 implies 62%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.2, so 56% for over 2.5 and 59% for both to score
- Last five: Lille DWLWW, Lens WWLDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 68% combined.
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Lille vs Lens preview
Lille host Lens in Ligue 1 on Friday 30 October. Lille sit 4th in the table on 14 points from 7 games, while Lens are 9th with 10 points. On form, Lille have won three of their last five (DWLWW), while Lens have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WWLDL). Lille average 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, compared with 2.0 and 1.6 for Lens. Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Lille and 1.2 for Lens, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Lille 42% to win, the draw 27% and Lens 32%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 41%, 27% and 33%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 59%, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 42% | 2.45 | 41% | +2% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | 27% | -1% |
| Lens win | 32% | 3.01 | 33% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.75 | 57% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 | 44% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 1.62 | 62% | -4% |
| Not both to score | 41% | 2.40 | 42% | -2% |
| Lille or draw | 68% | 1.44 | 69% | -2% |
| Lens or draw | 58% | 1.67 | 60% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 73% | 1.33 | 75% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lille | 1.6 |
| Lens | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lille 1–1 Lens | 13% |
| Lille 2–1 Lens | 9% |
| Lille 1–0 Lens | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lille | |
| Lens |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 4th | 14 | 7 |
| Lens | 9th | 10 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Lens | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.90 (53%) | 1.91 (52%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Lille vs Lens: FAQ
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
We make Lille 42% to win, the draw 27% and Lens 32%, so Lille are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Lille the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 59%.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lens?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Lille and 1.2 for Lens.
How many goals in Lille vs Lens?
Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and under 2.5 at 44%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.75. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lille vs Lens kick off?
Lille vs Lens kicks off at 20:05 UTC on Friday 30 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
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