Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
Marseille
ToulouseNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 62%; the best price of 1.64 implies 61%
- Expected goals 1.8–1.9, so 62% for over 2.5 and 63% for both to score
- Last five: Marseille WWLLL, Toulouse WDWDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 74% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.8 and 1.9 xG.
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Marseille vs Toulouse preview
Ligue 1 action on Sunday 1 November sees Toulouse travel to face Marseille. In the standings, Toulouse are 12th on 9 points from 7 games and Marseille 10th on 9 points from 7 games. The two sides are level on points. Toulouse come into it having picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WDWDL); Marseille have lost three of their last five (WWLLL). In front of goal, Marseille score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Toulouse score 1.7 and concede 1.6. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for Marseille and 1.9 for Toulouse, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. We make Marseille 50% to win, the draw 24% and Toulouse 26%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 53%, 24% and 25%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 62%, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.64. The edge is slim at around 2%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 50% | 1.90 | 53% | -5% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | 24% | -2% |
| Toulouse win | 26% | 4.03 | 25% | +6% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.64 | 61% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.52 | 40% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 1.55 | 65% | -2% |
| Not both to score | 37% | 2.50 | 40% | -8% |
| Marseille or draw | 74% | 1.29 | 78% | -5% |
| Toulouse or draw | 50% | 2.00 | 50% | +0% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.27 | 79% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.8 |
| Toulouse | 1.9 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Marseille 1–1 Toulouse | 9% |
| Marseille 1–2 Toulouse | 8% |
| Marseille 2–1 Toulouse | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Marseille | |
| Toulouse |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 10th | 9 | 7 |
| Toulouse | 12th | 9 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Toulouse | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.95 (51%) | 1.85 (54%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Marseille vs Toulouse: FAQ
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
We make Marseille 50% to win, the draw 24% and Toulouse 26%, so Marseille are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Marseille the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?
We give both teams to score a 63% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Marseille and 1.9 for Toulouse.
How many goals in Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 62% and under 2.5 at 38%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.64. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Marseille vs Toulouse kick off?
Marseille vs Toulouse kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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