Paris FC vs Monaco prediction
Paris FC
MonacoNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 58%; the best price of 1.65 implies 61%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.1 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Paris FC LWLWD, Monaco LDWDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.5 and 1.1 xG.
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Paris FC vs Monaco preview
Paris FC host Monaco in Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November. Paris FC sit 4th in the table on 14 points from 8 games, while Monaco are 5th with 14 points. The two sides are level on points. Monaco come into it having picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (LDWDW); Paris FC have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LWLWD). Paris FC average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 0.9 for Monaco. Our model expects around 1.5 goals for Paris FC and 1.1 for Monaco, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Paris FC 42% to win, the draw 26% and Monaco 32%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 42%, 26% and 33%. Our verdict is Monaco or draw: we rate it at 58%, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 42% | 2.38 | 42% | 0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 26% | +0% |
| Monaco win | 32% | 3.05 | 33% | -3% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.75 | 57% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.25 | 44% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 1.57 | 64% | -8% |
| Not both to score | 41% | 2.32 | 43% | -4% |
| Paris FC or draw | 68% | 1.44 | 69% | -2% |
| Monaco or draw | 58% | 1.65 | 61% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Paris FC | 1.5 |
| Monaco | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Paris FC 1–1 Monaco | 14% |
| Paris FC 1–0 Monaco | 10% |
| Paris FC 0–0 Monaco | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Paris FC | |
| Monaco |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 4th | 14 | 8 |
| Monaco | 5th | 14 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Monaco | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.02 (50%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Paris FC vs Monaco: FAQ
Who will win Paris FC vs Monaco?
We make Paris FC 42% to win, the draw 26% and Monaco 32%, so Paris FC are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Paris FC the shorter price. Our verdict is Monaco or draw at 58%.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Monaco?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. Our expected goals are 1.5 for Paris FC and 1.1 for Monaco.
How many goals in Paris FC vs Monaco?
Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.75. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Paris FC vs Monaco kick off?
Paris FC vs Monaco kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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