Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction

Ligue 1 · Monday 26 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Paris Saint Germain

19:30

Kick-off (UTC)

Lyon

Our verdict · Match result

Paris Saint Germain to win

Our chance63%

Best price1.46

Fair odds1.58

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 63%; the best price of 1.46 implies 68%
Expected goals 1.4–1.3 (most likely score 1-1)
Last five: Paris Saint Germain WWWWL, Lyon WLWDW
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Expected goals 1.4–1.3, 2.6 in total.

66%

@ 1.40

Both teams to score

Both sides expected to score: 1.4 and 1.3 xG.

60%

@ 1.55

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Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon preview

Ligue 1 action on Monday 26 October sees Lyon travel to face Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain sit 2nd in the table on 14 points from 7 games, while Lyon are 1st with 14 points. The two sides are level on points. Lyon come into it having won three of their last five (WLWDW); Paris Saint Germain have won four of their last five (WWWWL). Paris Saint Germain average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.9 and 0.7 for Lyon. Our model expects around 1.4 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.3 for Lyon, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Paris Saint Germain 63% to win, the draw 20% and Lyon 17%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 68%, 18% and 14%. Our verdict is Paris Saint Germain to win: we rate it at 63%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.46. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Paris Saint Germain win	63%	1.46	68%	-8%
Draw	20%	5.50	18%	+8%
Lyon win	17%	6.91	14%	+19%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	66%	1.40	71%	-8%
Under 2.5 goals	34%	3.10	32%	+6%
Both teams to score	60%	1.55	65%	-7%
Not both to score	40%	2.50	40%	0%
Paris Saint Germain or draw	83%	1.14	88%	-6%
Lyon or draw	37%	2.93	34%	+8%
Either team to win	80%	1.19	84%	-4%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Paris Saint Germain	1.4
Lyon	1.3
Total	2.6

Most likely scores	Chance
Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Lyon	14%
Paris Saint Germain 0–0 Lyon	9%
Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Lyon	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Paris Saint Germain	2nd	14	7
Lyon	1st	14	7

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Paris Saint Germain	2.0	1.3
Lyon	1.9	0.7

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.96 (51%)	2.12 (47%)
Cards 3.5	1.78 (56%)	2.13 (47%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: FAQ

Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?

We make Paris Saint Germain 63% to win, the draw 20% and Lyon 17%, so Paris Saint Germain are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Paris Saint Germain the shorter price. Our verdict is Paris Saint Germain to win at 63%.

Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?

We give both teams to score a 60% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.3 for Lyon.

How many goals in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?

Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.40. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon kick off?

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon kicks off at 19:30 UTC on Monday 26 October 2026, in Ligue 1.