Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Liverpool
ArsenalNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%; the best price of 1.72 implies 58%
- Expected goals 0.9–1.3 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Liverpool WLWDW, Arsenal WWWLW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.0 and 1.3 xG.
Build your bet slip
Liverpool vs Arsenal preview
Liverpool host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November. Liverpool sit 5th in the table on 12 points from 7 games, while Arsenal are 2nd with 21 points. Recent results matter here: Liverpool have won three of their last five (WLWDW) and Arsenal have won four of their last five (WWWLW). In front of goal, Liverpool score 1.3 and concede 1.1 a game on average; Arsenal score 1.6 and concede 0.6. Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Liverpool and 1.3 for Arsenal, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Liverpool 29% to win, the draw 27% and Arsenal 43%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 30%, 27% and 44%. Our verdict is Liverpool or draw: we rate it at 57%, against 58% implied by the best price of 1.72. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 29% | 3.33 | 30% | -3% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | 27% | +1% |
| Arsenal win | 43% | 2.27 | 44% | -1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.81 | 55% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.15 | 47% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 1.65 | 61% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 43% | 2.30 | 43% | 0% |
| Liverpool or draw | 57% | 1.72 | 58% | -3% |
| Arsenal or draw | 71% | 1.39 | 72% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 73% | 1.33 | 75% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.0 |
| Arsenal | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.2 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal | 15% |
| Liverpool 0–0 Arsenal | 12% |
| Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal | 12% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | |
| Arsenal |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 5th | 12 | 7 |
| Arsenal | 2nd | 21 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Arsenal | 1.6 | 0.6 |
Liverpool vs Arsenal: FAQ
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
We make Liverpool 29% to win, the draw 27% and Arsenal 43%, so Arsenal are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Arsenal the shorter price. Our verdict is Liverpool or draw at 57%.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
We give both teams to score a 57% chance, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Liverpool and 1.3 for Arsenal.
How many goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our model expects about 2.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 52% and under 2.5 at 48%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.81. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Liverpool vs Arsenal kick off?
Liverpool vs Arsenal kicks off at 16:30 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Premier League.
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