Atalanta vs Parma prediction
Atalanta
ParmaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 65%
- Expected goals 2.3–1.1, so 65% for over 2.5 and 60% for both to score
- Last five: Atalanta DLWLL, Parma LLLWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Atalanta the win 63%.
Both sides expected to score: 2.3 and 1.1 xG.
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Atalanta vs Parma preview
Atalanta welcome Parma on Monday 2 November in Serie A. Atalanta sit 11th in the table on 10 points from 8 games, while Parma are 19th with 4 points. That puts Atalanta eight places higher. Recent results matter here: Atalanta have lost three of their last five (DLWLL) and Parma have lost four of their last five (LLLWL). In front of goal, Atalanta score 1.8 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Parma score 0.6 and concede 1.9. On expected goals we have Atalanta at 2.3 and Parma at 1.1, with 2–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Atalanta 63% to win, the draw 21% and Parma 16%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 65%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 63% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 21% | – | – | – |
| Parma win | 16% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 60% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 40% | – | – | – |
| Atalanta or draw | 84% | – | – | – |
| Parma or draw | 37% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 79% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | 2.3 |
| Parma | 1.1 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Atalanta 2–1 Parma | 10% |
| Atalanta 1–1 Parma | 10% |
| Atalanta 2–0 Parma | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | |
| Parma |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 11th | 10 | 8 |
| Parma | 19th | 4 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Parma | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Atalanta vs Parma: FAQ
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
We make Atalanta 63% to win, the draw 21% and Parma 16%, so Atalanta are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Parma?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance. Our expected goals are 2.3 for Atalanta and 1.1 for Parma.
How many goals in Atalanta vs Parma?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 65% and under 2.5 at 35%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Atalanta vs Parma kick off?
Atalanta vs Parma kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026, in Serie A.
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