Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction
Sassuolo
FiorentinaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 70%
- Expected goals 2.2–1.4, so 70% for over 2.5 and 68% for both to score
- Last five: Sassuolo LLDLW, Fiorentina LLLDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.2 and 1.4 xG.
Our model gives Sassuolo the win 54%.
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Sassuolo vs Fiorentina preview
Sassuolo welcome Fiorentina on Monday 2 November in Serie A. In the standings, Fiorentina are 18th on 4 points from 8 games and Sassuolo 14th on 8 points from 8 games. Both sides have lost three of their last five: Sassuolo LLDLW and Fiorentina LLLDW. Sassuolo average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.1 and 2.4 for Fiorentina. Our model expects around 2.2 goals for Sassuolo and 1.4 for Fiorentina, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 68%. We make Sassuolo 54% to win, the draw 22% and Fiorentina 24%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 70%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 54% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 22% | – | – | – |
| Fiorentina win | 24% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 68% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 32% | – | – | – |
| Sassuolo or draw | 76% | – | – | – |
| Fiorentina or draw | 46% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 78% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.2 |
| Fiorentina | 1.4 |
| Total | 3.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo 1–1 Fiorentina | 9% |
| Sassuolo 2–1 Fiorentina | 9% |
| Sassuolo 3–1 Fiorentina | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | |
| Fiorentina |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 14th | 8 | 8 |
| Fiorentina | 18th | 4 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Fiorentina | 1.1 | 2.4 |
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: FAQ
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
We make Sassuolo 54% to win, the draw 22% and Fiorentina 24%, so Sassuolo are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
We give both teams to score a 68% chance. Our expected goals are 2.2 for Sassuolo and 1.4 for Fiorentina.
How many goals in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our model expects about 3.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and under 2.5 at 30%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kick off?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026, in Serie A.
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