Eredivisie

Willem II vs Cambuur prediction

Eredivisie · Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Willem II

1–6

Full time

Cambuur

Result: Willem II 1–6 Cambuur

Pick	Outcome
Both teams to score	Won
Cambuur or draw	Won
Over 2.5 goals	Won

Settled on our public track record.

Our verdict · Double chance

Cambuur or draw Won

Our chance64%

Best price1.55

Fair odds1.57

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 61%
Expected goals 1.2–1.9, so 60% for over 2.5 and 61% for both to score
Last five: Willem II LLLLD, Cambuur DWDWD
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Both teams to score

65%

@ 1.45

Won

Goals

Over 2.5 goals

61%

@ 1.59

Won

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Willem II vs Cambuur preview

Willem II hosted Cambuur in the Eredivisie on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Cambuur are 14th on 9 points from 9 games and Willem II 18th on 2 points from 9 games. Recent results matter here: Willem II have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLLD) and Cambuur have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (DWDWD). Willem II average 1.0 goals scored and 2.9 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 2.3 for Cambuur. Our model expects around 1.2 goals for Willem II and 1.9 for Cambuur, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Willem II 36% to win, the draw 26% and Cambuur 38%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 39%, 26% and 37%. Our verdict is Cambuur or draw: we rate it at 64%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Willem II win	36%	2.55	39%	-8%
Draw	26%	3.80	26%	-3%
Cambuur win	38%	2.71	37%	+4%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.59	63%	-3%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.55	39%	-1%
Both teams to score	65%	1.45	69%	-5%
Not both to score	35%	2.88	35%	+0%
Willem II or draw	62%	1.53	65%	-5%
Cambuur or draw	64%	1.55	65%	-1%
Either team to win	74%	1.30	77%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Willem II	1.2
Cambuur	1.9
Total	3.1

Most likely scores	Chance
Willem II 1–1 Cambuur	12%
Willem II 1–2 Cambuur	10%
Willem II 0–2 Cambuur	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Willem II
Cambuur

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Willem II	18th	2	9
Cambuur	14th	9	9

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Willem II	1.0	2.9
Cambuur	1.4	2.3

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.75 (57%)	2.06 (49%)
Cards 3.5	2.25 (44%)	1.60 (63%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Willem II vs Cambuur: FAQ

Who will win Willem II vs Cambuur?

The match finished Willem II 1–6 Cambuur. Before kick-off we made Willem II 36% to win, the draw 26% and Cambuur 38%, so Cambuur were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers see it differently and make Willem II favourites. Our verdict was Cambuur or draw at 64%.

Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?

We gave both teams to score a 65% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.45. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Willem II and 1.9 for Cambuur. In the end, both teams did score.

How many goals in Willem II vs Cambuur?

Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and under 2.5 at 39%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.59. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 1–6, 7 goals in all.

What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?

Willem II vs Cambuur kicked off at 16:45 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.