Malaga vs Racing Santander prediction
Malaga
Racing SantanderNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 67%; the best price of 1.47 implies 68%
- Expected goals 2.1–1.3 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Malaga DLDLL, Racing Santander WLDLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.1 and 1.3 xG.
Expected goals 2.1–1.3, 3.4 in total.
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Malaga vs Racing Santander preview
La Liga action on Saturday 7 November sees Racing Santander travel to face Malaga. In the standings, Racing Santander are 14th on 11 points from 10 games and Malaga 20th on 5 points from 10 games. That puts Racing Santander six places higher. Racing Santander come into it having lost three of their last five (WLDLL); Malaga have not won any of their last five (two draws, three defeats) (DLDLL). In front of goal, Malaga score 0.7 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Racing Santander score 1.5 and concede 2.6. On expected goals we have Malaga at 2.1 and Racing Santander at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. We make Malaga 41% to win, the draw 26% and Racing Santander 33%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 40%, 27% and 34%. Our verdict is Malaga or draw: we rate it at 67%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.47. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga win | 41% | 2.48 | 40% | +2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 | 27% | -3% |
| Racing Santander win | 33% | 2.92 | 34% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 58% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.28 | 44% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.55 | 65% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 39% | 2.40 | 42% | -7% |
| Malaga or draw | 67% | 1.47 | 68% | -1% |
| Racing Santander or draw | 59% | 1.61 | 62% | -5% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.32 | 76% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Malaga | 2.1 |
| Racing Santander | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Malaga 1–1 Racing Santander | 10% |
| Malaga 2–1 Racing Santander | 9% |
| Malaga 2–0 Racing Santander | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Malaga | |
| Racing Santander |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 20th | 5 | 10 |
| Racing Santander | 14th | 11 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Racing Santander | 1.5 | 2.6 |
Malaga vs Racing Santander: FAQ
Who will win Malaga vs Racing Santander?
We make Malaga 41% to win, the draw 26% and Racing Santander 33%, so Malaga are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Malaga the shorter price. Our verdict is Malaga or draw at 67%.
Will both teams score in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
We give both teams to score a 61% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 2.1 for Malaga and 1.3 for Racing Santander.
How many goals in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 at 42%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.73. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Malaga vs Racing Santander kick off?
Malaga vs Racing Santander kicks off at 13:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in La Liga.
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