Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction
Valencia
Real MadridNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%; the best price of 1.67 implies 60%
- Expected goals 0.9–1.8, so 65% for over 2.5 and 56% for both to score
- Last five: Valencia LDDLW, Real Madrid WWWLW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Real Madrid the win 70%.
Expected goals 1.0–1.8, 2.7 in total.
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Valencia vs Real Madrid preview
La Liga action on Saturday 7 November sees Real Madrid travel to face Valencia. Valencia sit 19th in the table on 6 points from 10 games, while Real Madrid are 3rd with 24 points. That puts Real Madrid 16 places higher. On form, Valencia have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LDDLW), while Real Madrid have won four of their last five (WWWLW). In front of goal, Valencia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.0. On expected goals we have Valencia at 1.0 and Real Madrid at 1.8, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Valencia 13% to win, the draw 18% and Real Madrid 70%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 12%, 17% and 71%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 56%, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 13% | 8.40 | 12% | +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 5.83 | 17% | +5% |
| Real Madrid win | 70% | 1.40 | 71% | -3% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.44 | 69% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.92 | 34% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 1.67 | 60% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 44% | 2.20 | 45% | -4% |
| Valencia or draw | 30% | 3.26 | 31% | -1% |
| Real Madrid or draw | 87% | 1.12 | 89% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 82% | 1.18 | 85% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.0 |
| Real Madrid | 1.8 |
| Total | 2.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Valencia 1–1 Real Madrid | 12% |
| Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid | 10% |
| Valencia 0–1 Real Madrid | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Valencia | |
| Real Madrid |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19th | 6 | 10 |
| Real Madrid | 3rd | 24 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.0 |
Valencia vs Real Madrid: FAQ
Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
We make Valencia 13% to win, the draw 18% and Real Madrid 70%, so Real Madrid are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Real Madrid the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 56%.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
We give both teams to score a 56% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Valencia and 1.8 for Real Madrid.
How many goals in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Our model expects about 2.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 65% and under 2.5 at 35%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.44. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Valencia vs Real Madrid kick off?
Valencia vs Real Madrid kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in La Liga.
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