Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction

Ligue 1 · Friday 6 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Toulouse

19:45

Kick-off (UTC)

Strasbourg

Our verdict · Both teams to score

Both teams to score

Our chance62%

Best price1.55

Fair odds1.61

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 62%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
Expected goals 1.6–1.4, so 59% for over 2.5 and 62% for both to score
Last five: Toulouse DWDWD, Strasbourg LLLLD
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

No side is clear, so we cover two results: 71% combined.

71%

@ 1.37

Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Expected goals 1.6–1.4, 3.0 in total.

59%

@ 1.66

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Toulouse vs Strasbourg preview

Toulouse host Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Friday 6 November. In the standings, Strasbourg are 16th on 7 points from 8 games and Toulouse 11th on 10 points from 8 games. Strasbourg come into it having not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLLD); Toulouse have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (DWDWD). In front of goal, Toulouse score 1.5 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Strasbourg score 1.5 and concede 2.3. On expected goals we have Toulouse at 1.6 and Strasbourg at 1.4, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. We make Toulouse 46% to win, the draw 25% and Strasbourg 29%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 48%, 25% and 28%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 62%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Toulouse win	46%	2.10	48%	-3%
Draw	25%	3.98	25%	0%
Strasbourg win	29%	3.51	28%	+0%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.66	60%	-2%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.42	41%	-1%
Both teams to score	62%	1.55	65%	-4%
Not both to score	38%	2.55	39%	-4%
Toulouse or draw	71%	1.37	73%	-2%
Strasbourg or draw	54%	1.83	55%	-2%
Either team to win	75%	1.29	78%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Toulouse	1.6
Strasbourg	1.4
Total	3.0

Most likely scores	Chance
Toulouse 1–1 Strasbourg	12%
Toulouse 2–1 Strasbourg	9%
Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Toulouse
Strasbourg

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Toulouse	11th	10	8
Strasbourg	16th	7	8

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Toulouse	1.5	1.4
Strasbourg	1.5	2.3

Toulouse vs Strasbourg: FAQ

Who will win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

We make Toulouse 46% to win, the draw 25% and Strasbourg 29%, so Toulouse are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Toulouse the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 62%.

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

We give both teams to score a 62% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Toulouse and 1.4 for Strasbourg.

How many goals in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and under 2.5 at 41%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.66. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does Toulouse vs Strasbourg kick off?

Toulouse vs Strasbourg kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Friday 6 November 2026, in Ligue 1.