AS Roma vs Sassuolo prediction
AS Roma
SassuoloNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 74%
- Expected goals 2.8–1.1, so 74% for over 2.5 and 64% for both to score
- Last five: AS Roma WDWDD, Sassuolo LLLDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives AS Roma the win 70%.
Both sides expected to score: 2.8 and 1.1 xG.
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AS Roma vs Sassuolo preview
AS Roma host Sassuolo in Serie A on Saturday 7 November. In the standings, Sassuolo are 15th on 8 points from 9 games and AS Roma 3rd on 21 points from 9 games. That puts AS Roma 12 places higher. On form, AS Roma have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (WDWDD), while Sassuolo have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLDL). In front of goal, AS Roma score 2.6 and concede 0.9 a game on average; Sassuolo score 1.6 and concede 2.4. Our model expects around 2.8 goals for AS Roma and 1.1 for Sassuolo, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 64%. We make AS Roma 70% to win, the draw 17% and Sassuolo 12%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 74%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 70% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 17% | – | – | – |
| Sassuolo win | 12% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 64% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 36% | – | – | – |
| AS Roma or draw | 88% | – | – | – |
| Sassuolo or draw | 30% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 83% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 2.8 |
| Sassuolo | 1.1 |
| Total | 3.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| AS Roma 2–1 Sassuolo | 9% |
| AS Roma 3–1 Sassuolo | 8% |
| AS Roma 2–0 Sassuolo | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | |
| Sassuolo |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 3rd | 21 | 9 |
| Sassuolo | 15th | 8 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Sassuolo | 1.6 | 2.4 |
AS Roma vs Sassuolo: FAQ
Who will win AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
We make AS Roma 70% to win, the draw 17% and Sassuolo 12%, so AS Roma are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
We give both teams to score a 64% chance. Our expected goals are 2.8 for AS Roma and 1.1 for Sassuolo.
How many goals in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our model expects about 3.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 74% and under 2.5 at 26%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does AS Roma vs Sassuolo kick off?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in Serie A.
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