Parma vs Bologna prediction
Parma
BolognaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%
- Expected goals 0.9–1.4, so 40% for over 2.5 and 46% for both to score
- Last five: Parma DLLLW, Bologna WWLWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 77% combined.
One side is expected to struggle: 0.9 xG.
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Parma vs Bologna preview
Parma welcome Bologna on Saturday 7 November in Serie A. In the standings, Bologna are 11th on 11 points from 9 games and Parma 19th on 5 points from 9 games. That puts Bologna eight places higher. Bologna come into it having won three of their last five (WWLWD); Parma have lost three of their last five (DLLLW). In front of goal, Parma score 0.6 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Bologna score 1.3 and concede 1.3. On expected goals we have Parma at 0.9 and Bologna at 1.4, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. We make Parma 23% to win, the draw 30% and Bologna 47%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 60%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 23% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 30% | – | – | – |
| Bologna win | 47% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 54% | – | – | – |
| Parma or draw | 53% | – | – | – |
| Bologna or draw | 77% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 70% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Parma | 0.9 |
| Bologna | 1.4 |
| Total | 2.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Parma 1–1 Bologna | 14% |
| Parma 0–1 Bologna | 13% |
| Parma 0–0 Bologna | 12% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Parma | |
| Bologna |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 19th | 5 | 9 |
| Bologna | 11th | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Bologna | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Parma vs Bologna: FAQ
Who will win Parma vs Bologna?
We make Parma 23% to win, the draw 30% and Bologna 47%, so Bologna are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
We give both teams to score a 46% chance. Our expected goals are 0.9 for Parma and 1.4 for Bologna.
How many goals in Parma vs Bologna?
Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 40% and under 2.5 at 60%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Parma vs Bologna kick off?
Parma vs Bologna kicks off at 17:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in Serie A.
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