Bundesliga

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

Bundesliga · Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

1. FC Köln

14:30

Kick-off (UTC)

Bayer Leverkusen

Our verdict · Match result

Bayer Leverkusen to win

Our chance53%

Best price1.76

Fair odds1.88

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 53%; the best price of 1.76 implies 57%
Last five: 1. FC Köln DLWLD, Bayer Leverkusen LLWWW
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Expected goals 2.1–1.5: 3.5 in total, most likely score 1–1

68%

@ 1.42

Both teams to score

Both sides expected to score: 2.1 and 1.5 xG.

66%

@ 1.44

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Every market we price for this match, on the main site.

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1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen preview

Bundesliga action on Sunday 8 November sees Bayer Leverkusen travel to face 1. FC Köln. In the standings, Bayer Leverkusen are 6th on 13 points from 8 games and 1. FC Köln 14th on 8 points from 7 games. That puts Bayer Leverkusen eight places higher. Bayer Leverkusen come into it having won three of their last five (LLWWW); 1. FC Köln have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (DLWLD). In front of goal, 1. FC Köln score 1.1 and concede 1.6 a game on average; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.3 and concede 2.0.

On expected goals we have 1. FC Köln at 2.1 and Bayer Leverkusen at 1.5, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%). We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 66%. We make 1. FC Köln 25% to win, the draw 22% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 22%, 22% and 57%. Our verdict is Bayer Leverkusen to win: we rate it at 53%, against 57% implied by the best price of 1.76. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
1. FC Köln win	25%	4.51	22%	+12%
Draw	22%	4.57	22%	0%
Bayer Leverkusen win	53%	1.76	57%	-6%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	68%	1.42	70%	-3%
Under 2.5 goals	32%	3.00	33%	-4%
Both teams to score	66%	1.44	69%	-5%
Not both to score	34%	2.75	36%	-6%
1. FC Köln or draw	47%	2.20	45%	+3%
Bayer Leverkusen or draw	75%	1.25	80%	-6%
Either team to win	78%	1.24	81%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
1. FC Köln	2.1
Bayer Leverkusen	1.5
Total	3.5

Most likely scores	Chance
1. FC Köln 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen	10%
1. FC Köln 2–1 Bayer Leverkusen	9%
1. FC Köln 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen	7%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
1. FC Köln
Bayer Leverkusen

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
1. FC Köln	14th	8	7
Bayer Leverkusen	6th	13	8

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
1. FC Köln	1.1	1.6
Bayer Leverkusen	2.3	2.0

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen: FAQ

Who will win 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

We make 1. FC Köln 25% to win, the draw 22% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%, so Bayer Leverkusen are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Bayer Leverkusen the shorter price. Our verdict is Bayer Leverkusen to win at 53%.

Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 2.1 for 1. FC Köln and 1.5 for Bayer Leverkusen.

How many goals in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and under 2.5 at 32%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.42. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Bundesliga.