SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction
SC Freiburg
Union BerlinNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 65%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
- Expected goals 3.4–0.9 (most likely score 3-0)
- Last five: SC Freiburg WLLWD, Union Berlin DDWLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 3.4–1.0, 4.3 in total.
Both sides expected to score: 3.4 and 1.0 xG.
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SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin preview
SC Freiburg host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November. SC Freiburg sit 3rd in the table on 16 points from 8 games, while Union Berlin are 17th with 6 points. That puts SC Freiburg 14 places higher. Union Berlin come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (DDWLL); SC Freiburg have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLLWD). SC Freiburg average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 0.9 and 2.6 for Union Berlin. On expected goals we have SC Freiburg at 3.4 and Union Berlin at 1.0, with 3–0 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 57%. We make SC Freiburg 65% to win, the draw 20% and Union Berlin 15%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 65%, 21% and 16%. Our verdict is SC Freiburg to win: we rate it at 65%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 65% | 1.55 | 65% | +1% |
| Draw | 20% | 4.82 | 21% | -6% |
| Union Berlin win | 15% | 6.11 | 16% | -8% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.60 | 63% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.45 | 41% | -8% |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 1.70 | 59% | -4% |
| Not both to score | 43% | 2.20 | 45% | -5% |
| SC Freiburg or draw | 85% | 1.16 | 86% | -2% |
| Union Berlin or draw | 35% | 2.63 | 38% | -9% |
| Either team to win | 80% | 1.22 | 82% | -2% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 3.4 |
| Union Berlin | 1.0 |
| Total | 4.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg 3–0 Union Berlin | 9% |
| SC Freiburg 3–1 Union Berlin | 8% |
| SC Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | |
| Union Berlin |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 3rd | 16 | 8 |
| Union Berlin | 17th | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Union Berlin | 0.9 | 2.6 |
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin: FAQ
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
We make SC Freiburg 65% to win, the draw 20% and Union Berlin 15%, so SC Freiburg are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with SC Freiburg the shorter price. Our verdict is SC Freiburg to win at 65%.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
We give both teams to score a 57% chance, against 59% implied by the best price of 1.70. Our expected goals are 3.4 for SC Freiburg and 1.0 for Union Berlin.
How many goals in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model expects about 4.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 62% and under 2.5 at 38%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.60. The single most likely score is 3–0.
What time does SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kicks off at 16:30 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Bundesliga.
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