AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction
AZ Alkmaar
GroningenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%; the best price of 1.56 implies 64%
- Last five: AZ Alkmaar LLDLW, Groningen DLWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.9–1.7: 3.6 in total, most likely score 1–1
Both sides expected to score: 1.9 and 1.7 xG.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen preview
Eredivisie action on Sunday 8 November sees Groningen travel to face AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar sit 5th in the table on 20 points from 11 games, while Groningen are 8th with 15 points. Recent results matter here: AZ Alkmaar have lost three of their last five (LLDLW) and Groningen have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DLWWD). AZ Alkmaar average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, compared with 2.4 and 2.1 for Groningen. Our model expects around 1.9 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.7 for Groningen, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 66%. We make AZ Alkmaar 60% to win, the draw 21% and Groningen 20%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 64%, 21% and 19%. Our verdict is AZ Alkmaar to win: we rate it at 60%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.56. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 60% | 1.56 | 64% | -7% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | 21% | -2% |
| Groningen win | 20% | 5.40 | 19% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.38 | 72% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.10 | 32% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.44 | 69% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 34% | 2.69 | 37% | -8% |
| AZ Alkmaar or draw | 80% | 1.18 | 85% | -5% |
| Groningen or draw | 40% | 2.52 | 40% | +1% |
| Either team to win | 79% | 1.20 | 83% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.9 |
| Groningen | 1.7 |
| Total | 3.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Groningen | 10% |
| AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Groningen | 8% |
| AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Groningen | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | |
| Groningen |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 5th | 20 | 11 |
| Groningen | 8th | 15 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Groningen | 2.4 | 2.1 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: FAQ
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
We make AZ Alkmaar 60% to win, the draw 21% and Groningen 20%, so AZ Alkmaar are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with AZ Alkmaar the shorter price. Our verdict is AZ Alkmaar to win at 60%.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.9 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.7 for Groningen.
How many goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our model expects about 3.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 69% and under 2.5 at 31%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.38. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kicks off at 15:45 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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