Twente vs Ajax prediction
Twente
AjaxNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.52 implies 66%
- Expected goals 1.4–2.1 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Twente WLDWW, Ajax WWWDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.4 and 2.1 xG.
Expected goals 1.4–2.1, 3.5 in total.
Build your bet slip
Twente vs Ajax preview
Eredivisie action on Sunday 8 November sees Ajax travel to face Twente. Twente sit 4th in the table on 20 points from 10 games, while Ajax are 2nd with 24 points. On form, Twente have won three of their last five (WLDWW), while Ajax have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WWWDD). In front of goal, Twente score 1.9 and concede 1.0 a game on average; Ajax score 2.7 and concede 1.2. On expected goals we have Twente at 1.4 and Ajax at 2.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. We make Twente 36% to win, the draw 24% and Ajax 41%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 38%, 25% and 41%. Our verdict is Ajax or draw: we rate it at 64%, against 66% implied by the best price of 1.52. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente win | 36% | 2.60 | 38% | -7% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 | 25% | -4% |
| Ajax win | 41% | 2.45 | 41% | 0% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.37 | 73% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.10 | 32% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 1.36 | 74% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 31% | 3.10 | 32% | -5% |
| Twente or draw | 59% | 1.60 | 63% | -5% |
| Ajax or draw | 64% | 1.52 | 66% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.25 | 80% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Twente | 1.4 |
| Ajax | 2.1 |
| Total | 3.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Twente 1–1 Ajax | 10% |
| Twente 1–2 Ajax | 9% |
| Twente 0–2 Ajax | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Twente | |
| Ajax |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 4th | 20 | 10 |
| Ajax | 2nd | 24 | 11 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Ajax | 2.7 | 1.2 |
Twente vs Ajax: FAQ
Who will win Twente vs Ajax?
We make Twente 36% to win, the draw 24% and Ajax 41%, so Ajax are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Ajax the shorter price. Our verdict is Ajax or draw at 64%.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Ajax?
We give both teams to score a 69% chance, against 74% implied by the best price of 1.36. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Twente and 2.1 for Ajax.
How many goals in Twente vs Ajax?
Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 69% and under 2.5 at 31%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.37. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Twente vs Ajax kick off?
Twente vs Ajax kicks off at 13:30 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.
PEC Zwolle
ADO Den Haag
Excelsior
Telstar
Utrecht
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard