Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Utrecht
NEC NijmegenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.53 implies 65%
- Expected goals 1.6–2.3, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Utrecht DWWLW, NEC Nijmegen LDDDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.6 and 2.3 xG.
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 64% combined.
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Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen preview
Utrecht host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November. Utrecht sit 11th in the table on 12 points from 10 games, while NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 11 points. Recent results matter here: Utrecht have won three of their last five (DWWLW) and NEC Nijmegen have not won any of their last five (four draws, one defeat) (LDDDD). Utrecht average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game, compared with 1.5 and 1.7 for NEC Nijmegen. Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Utrecht and 2.3 for NEC Nijmegen, and 1–2 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. We make Utrecht 39% to win, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 36%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 42%, 26% and 35%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.53. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 39% | 2.37 | 42% | -7% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 | 26% | -4% |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 36% | 2.82 | 35% | +2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.53 | 65% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.57 | 39% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.44 | 69% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 34% | 2.67 | 37% | -8% |
| Utrecht or draw | 64% | 1.46 | 68% | -7% |
| NEC Nijmegen or draw | 61% | 1.62 | 62% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.28 | 78% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.6 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.3 |
| Total | 3.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Utrecht 1–2 NEC Nijmegen | 9% |
| Utrecht 1–1 NEC Nijmegen | 9% |
| Utrecht 2–2 NEC Nijmegen | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | |
| NEC Nijmegen |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 11th | 12 | 10 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 13th | 11 | 11 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: FAQ
Who will win Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
We make Utrecht 39% to win, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 36%, so Utrecht are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Utrecht the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Utrecht and 2.3 for NEC Nijmegen.
How many goals in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model expects about 3.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.53. The single most likely score is 1–2.
What time does Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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