AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction
AZ Alkmaar
JuventusNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 62%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.6, so 59% for over 2.5 and 62% for both to score
- Last five: AZ Alkmaar WWL, Juventus DWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 64% combined.
Expected goals 1.5–1.6, 3.1 in total.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus preview
Europa League action on Thursday 5 November sees Juventus travel to face AZ Alkmaar. In the standings, Juventus are 7th on 7 points from 3 games and AZ Alkmaar 10th on 6 points from 3 games. Juventus come into it having gone unbeaten in their last three, with two wins and one draw (DWW); AZ Alkmaar have picked up two wins, no draws and one defeat in their last three (WWL). AZ Alkmaar average 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, compared with 3.0 and 1.0 for Juventus. On expected goals we have AZ Alkmaar at 1.5 and Juventus at 1.6, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. We make AZ Alkmaar 36% to win, the draw 27% and Juventus 38%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 62%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 36% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 27% | – | – | – |
| Juventus win | 38% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 62% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 38% | – | – | – |
| AZ Alkmaar or draw | 62% | – | – | – |
| Juventus or draw | 64% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 73% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.5 |
| Juventus | 1.6 |
| Total | 3.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Juventus | 12% |
| AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Juventus | 9% |
| AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Juventus | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | |
| Juventus |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 10th | 6 | 3 |
| Juventus | 7th | 7 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Juventus | 3.0 | 1.0 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: FAQ
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
We make AZ Alkmaar 36% to win, the draw 27% and Juventus 38%, so Juventus are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 62%.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
We give both teams to score a 62% chance. Our expected goals are 1.5 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.6 for Juventus.
How many goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and under 2.5 at 41%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
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