Lillestrom vs Plzen prediction
Lillestrom
PlzenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 1.3–2.1, so 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: Lillestrom LDL, Plzen LLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.3 and 2.1 xG.
Our model gives Plzen the win 56%.
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Lillestrom vs Plzen preview
Lillestrom welcome Plzen on Thursday 5 November in the Europa League. In the standings, Plzen are 33rd on 0 points from 3 games and Lillestrom 31st on 1 point from 3 games. Recent results matter here: Lillestrom have not won any of their last three (one draw, two defeats) (LDL) and Plzen have lost each of their last three (LLL). In front of goal, Lillestrom score 0.7 and concede 3.0 a game on average; Plzen score 0.7 and concede 2.3. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Lillestrom and 2.1 for Plzen, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Lillestrom 21% to win, the draw 23% and Plzen 56%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 66%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 21% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 23% | – | – | – |
| Plzen win | 56% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 65% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 35% | – | – | – |
| Lillestrom or draw | 44% | – | – | – |
| Plzen or draw | 79% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 77% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.3 |
| Plzen | 2.1 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lillestrom 1–1 Plzen | 10% |
| Lillestrom 1–2 Plzen | 10% |
| Lillestrom 0–2 Plzen | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lillestrom | |
| Plzen |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 31st | 1 | 3 |
| Plzen | 33rd | 0 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| Plzen | 0.7 | 2.3 |
Lillestrom vs Plzen: FAQ
Who will win Lillestrom vs Plzen?
We make Lillestrom 21% to win, the draw 23% and Plzen 56%, so Plzen are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Plzen?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Lillestrom and 2.1 for Plzen.
How many goals in Lillestrom vs Plzen?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lillestrom vs Plzen kick off?
Lillestrom vs Plzen kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
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