Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
Real Sociedad
LyonNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 62%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.5, so 58% for over 2.5 and 62% for both to score
- Last five: Real Sociedad WDL, Lyon LWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 65% combined.
Expected goals 1.6–1.5, 3.0 in total.
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Real Sociedad vs Lyon preview
Europa League action on Thursday 5 November sees Lyon travel to face Real Sociedad. In the standings, Lyon are 12th on 6 points from 3 games and Real Sociedad 14th on 4 points from 3 games. On form, Real Sociedad have picked up one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three (WDL), while Lyon have picked up two wins, no draws and one defeat in their last three (LWW). In front of goal, Real Sociedad score 2.7 and concede 1.0 a game on average; Lyon score 1.7 and concede 2.0. Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 62%. We make Real Sociedad 38% to win, the draw 27% and Lyon 35%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 62%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 38% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 27% | – | – | – |
| Lyon win | 35% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 62% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 38% | – | – | – |
| Real Sociedad or draw | 65% | – | – | – |
| Lyon or draw | 62% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 73% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.6 |
| Lyon | 1.5 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad 1–1 Lyon | 12% |
| Real Sociedad 2–1 Lyon | 9% |
| Real Sociedad 1–2 Lyon | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | |
| Lyon |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 14th | 4 | 3 |
| Lyon | 12th | 6 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Lyon | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: FAQ
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
We make Real Sociedad 38% to win, the draw 27% and Lyon 35%, so Real Sociedad are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 62%.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
We give both teams to score a 62% chance. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Real Sociedad and 1.5 for Lyon.
How many goals in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 at 42%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Real Sociedad vs Lyon kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Lyon kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
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