Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
MarseilleNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%
- Expected goals 1.9–1.1, so 56% for over 2.5 and 57% for both to score
- Last five: Bayer Leverkusen WWW, Marseille LLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.9–1.1, 2.9 in total.
Our model gives Bayer Leverkusen the win 55%.
Build your bet slip
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille preview
Bayer Leverkusen welcome Marseille on Thursday 5 November in the Europa League. Bayer Leverkusen sit 2nd in the table on 9 points from 3 games, while Marseille are 34th with 0 points. That puts Bayer Leverkusen 32 places higher. Recent results matter here: Bayer Leverkusen have won each of their last three (WWW) and Marseille have lost each of their last three (LLL). In front of goal, Bayer Leverkusen score 2.7 and concede 0.0 a game on average; Marseille score 0.3 and concede 2.0. Our model expects around 1.9 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.1 for Marseille, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Bayer Leverkusen 55% to win, the draw 25% and Marseille 20%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 57%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 55% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Marseille win | 20% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 43% | – | – | – |
| Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 80% | – | – | – |
| Marseille or draw | 45% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.9 |
| Marseille | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Marseille | 12% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Marseille | 10% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Marseille | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | |
| Marseille |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2nd | 9 | 3 |
| Marseille | 34th | 0 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Marseille | 0.3 | 2.0 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: FAQ
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
We make Bayer Leverkusen 55% to win, the draw 25% and Marseille 20%, so Bayer Leverkusen are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 57%.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
We give both teams to score a 57% chance. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.1 for Marseille.
How many goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and under 2.5 at 44%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
Crystal Palace
1899 Hoffenheim
Rennes
Olympiakos Piraeus
Lillestrom
Plzen
NEC Nijmegen
Omonia Nicosia
AC Milan
Ferencvarosi TC
Real Sociedad
Lyon