Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction
Benfica
Lech PoznanNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 71%
- Expected goals 2.5–1.2, so 71% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Benfica WWW, Lech Poznan DLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.5 and 1.2 xG.
Our model gives Benfica the win 63%.
Build your bet slip
Benfica vs Lech Poznan preview
Benfica host Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thursday 5 November. In the standings, Lech Poznan are 32nd on 1 point from 3 games and Benfica 1st on 9 points from 3 games. That puts Benfica 31 places higher. On form, Benfica have won each of their last three (WWW), while Lech Poznan have not won any of their last three (one draw, two defeats) (DLL). Benfica average 3.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, compared with 0.3 and 3.0 for Lech Poznan. Our model expects around 2.5 goals for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 66%. We make Benfica 63% to win, the draw 20% and Lech Poznan 17%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 71%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 63% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 20% | – | – | – |
| Lech Poznan win | 17% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 66% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 34% | – | – | – |
| Benfica or draw | 83% | – | – | – |
| Lech Poznan or draw | 37% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 80% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Benfica | 2.5 |
| Lech Poznan | 1.2 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Benfica 2–1 Lech Poznan | 9% |
| Benfica 1–1 Lech Poznan | 9% |
| Benfica 3–1 Lech Poznan | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Benfica | |
| Lech Poznan |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 1st | 9 | 3 |
| Lech Poznan | 32nd | 1 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Lech Poznan | 0.3 | 3.0 |
Benfica vs Lech Poznan: FAQ
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
We make Benfica 63% to win, the draw 20% and Lech Poznan 17%, so Benfica are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Benfica and 1.2 for Lech Poznan.
How many goals in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 71% and under 2.5 at 29%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Benfica vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Benfica vs Lech Poznan kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
Crystal Palace
1899 Hoffenheim
Rennes
Olympiakos Piraeus
Lillestrom
Plzen
NEC Nijmegen
Omonia Nicosia
AC Milan
Ferencvarosi TC
Real Sociedad
Lyon