Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia prediction
Levski Sofia
JagielloniaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%
- Expected goals 1.3–1.4, so 51% for over 2.5 and 56% for both to score
- Last five: Levski Sofia WDL, Jagiellonia LWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 66% combined.
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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia preview
Levski Sofia welcome Jagiellonia on Thursday 5 November in the Europa League. Levski Sofia sit 17th in the table on 4 points from 3 games, while Jagiellonia are 27th with 3 points. That puts Levski Sofia ten places higher. On form, Levski Sofia have picked up one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three (WDL), while Jagiellonia have picked up one win, no draws and two defeats in their last three (LWL). Levski Sofia average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.3 and 2.0 for Jagiellonia. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.4 for Jagiellonia, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Levski Sofia 34% to win, the draw 29% and Jagiellonia 37%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 56%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia win | 34% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 29% | – | – | – |
| Jagiellonia win | 37% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 44% | – | – | – |
| Levski Sofia or draw | 63% | – | – | – |
| Jagiellonia or draw | 66% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 71% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 1.3 |
| Jagiellonia | 1.4 |
| Total | 2.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Levski Sofia 1–1 Jagiellonia | 14% |
| Levski Sofia 1–2 Jagiellonia | 8% |
| Levski Sofia 0–0 Jagiellonia | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | |
| Jagiellonia |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 17th | 4 | 3 |
| Jagiellonia | 27th | 3 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Jagiellonia | 1.3 | 2.0 |
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: FAQ
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
We make Levski Sofia 34% to win, the draw 29% and Jagiellonia 37%, so Jagiellonia are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 56%.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
We give both teams to score a 56% chance. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Levski Sofia and 1.4 for Jagiellonia.
How many goals in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Our model expects about 2.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
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