Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
Sturm Graz
CeljeNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 62%
- Expected goals 1.3–0.9, so 38% for over 2.5 and 46% for both to score
- Last five: Sturm Graz WLD, Celje DLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 74% combined.
One side is expected to struggle: 0.9 xG.
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Sturm Graz vs Celje preview
Sturm Graz welcome Celje on Thursday 5 November in the Europa League. Sturm Graz sit 19th in the table on 4 points from 3 games, while Celje are 29th with 1 point. That puts Sturm Graz ten places higher. On form, Sturm Graz have picked up one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three (WLD), while Celje have not won any of their last three (one draw, two defeats) (DLL). Sturm Graz average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 0.7 and 2.3 for Celje. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.9 for Celje, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 46%. We make Sturm Graz 43% to win, the draw 32% and Celje 26%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 62%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 43% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 32% | – | – | – |
| Celje win | 26% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 54% | – | – | – |
| Sturm Graz or draw | 74% | – | – | – |
| Celje or draw | 57% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 68% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.3 |
| Celje | 0.9 |
| Total | 2.2 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz 1–1 Celje | 15% |
| Sturm Graz 0–0 Celje | 12% |
| Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje | 12% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | |
| Celje |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 19th | 4 | 3 |
| Celje | 29th | 1 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Celje | 0.7 | 2.3 |
Sturm Graz vs Celje: FAQ
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
We make Sturm Graz 43% to win, the draw 32% and Celje 26%, so Sturm Graz are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
We give both teams to score a 46% chance. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Sturm Graz and 0.9 for Celje.
How many goals in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Our model expects about 2.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 38% and under 2.5 at 62%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sturm Graz vs Celje kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Celje kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
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