Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
Sunderland
Dinamo ZagrebNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.1, so 40% for over 2.5 and 48% for both to score
- Last five: Sunderland DWW, Dinamo Zagreb LWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 68% combined.
One side is expected to struggle: 1.1 xG.
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Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb preview
Europa League action on Thursday 5 November sees Dinamo Zagreb travel to face Sunderland. In the standings, Dinamo Zagreb are 18th on 4 points from 3 games and Sunderland 9th on 7 points from 3 games. That puts Sunderland nine places higher. Recent results matter here: Sunderland have gone unbeaten in their last three, with two wins and one draw (DWW) and Dinamo Zagreb have picked up one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three (LWD). In front of goal, Sunderland score 1.3 and concede 0.7 a game on average; Dinamo Zagreb score 1.0 and concede 1.3. On expected goals we have Sunderland at 1.2 and Dinamo Zagreb at 1.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (15%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 48%. We make Sunderland 36% to win, the draw 32% and Dinamo Zagreb 32%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 60%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 36% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 32% | – | – | – |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 32% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 52% | – | – | – |
| Sunderland or draw | 68% | – | – | – |
| Dinamo Zagreb or draw | 64% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 68% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.2 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sunderland 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb | 15% |
| Sunderland 0–0 Dinamo Zagreb | 12% |
| Sunderland 1–0 Dinamo Zagreb | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | |
| Dinamo Zagreb |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 9th | 7 | 3 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 18th | 4 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
We make Sunderland 36% to win, the draw 32% and Dinamo Zagreb 32%, so Sunderland are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
We give both teams to score a 48% chance. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Sunderland and 1.1 for Dinamo Zagreb.
How many goals in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 40% and under 2.5 at 60%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb kick off?
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026, in the Europa League.
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