Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano preview

Real Sociedad welcome Rayo Vallecano on Sunday 8 November in La Liga. Real Sociedad sit 5th in the table on 19 points from 10 games, while Rayo Vallecano are 11th with 12 points. That puts Real Sociedad six places higher. On form, Real Sociedad have won four of their last five (WWWWL), while Rayo Vallecano have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WLDDW). Real Sociedad average 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, compared with 1.5 and 2.0 for Rayo Vallecano. On expected goals we have Real Sociedad at 2.0 and Rayo Vallecano at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. We make Real Sociedad 54% to win, the draw 24% and Rayo Vallecano 22%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 55%, 25% and 22%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 57%, against 58% implied by the best price of 1.73. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.