Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction
Auxerre
Paris FCNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 54%; the best price of 1.91 implies 52%
- Expected goals 1.3–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Auxerre DWLWW, Paris FC LWLWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.3 and 1.2 xG.
Build your bet slip
Auxerre vs Paris FC preview
Ligue 1 action on Saturday 7 November sees Paris FC travel to face Auxerre. Auxerre sit 12th in the table on 10 points from 8 games, while Paris FC are 6th with 14 points. That puts Paris FC six places higher. Recent results matter here: Auxerre have won three of their last five (DWLWW) and Paris FC have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LWLWD). In front of goal, Auxerre score 1.5 and concede 2.3 a game on average; Paris FC score 1.6 and concede 1.1. On expected goals we have Auxerre at 1.3 and Paris FC at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Auxerre 28% to win, the draw 26% and Paris FC 46%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 27%, 26% and 49%. Our verdict is Auxerre or draw: we rate it at 54%, against 52% implied by the best price of 1.91. The edge is slim at around 2%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 28% | 3.70 | 27% | +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | 26% | +0% |
| Paris FC win | 46% | 2.05 | 49% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.77 | 56% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.22 | 45% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 1.67 | 60% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 43% | 2.22 | 45% | -4% |
| Auxerre or draw | 54% | 1.91 | 52% | +2% |
| Paris FC or draw | 72% | 1.33 | 75% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.30 | 77% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.3 |
| Paris FC | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Auxerre 1–1 Paris FC | 14% |
| Auxerre 0–0 Paris FC | 10% |
| Auxerre 1–0 Paris FC | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Auxerre | |
| Paris FC |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 12th | 10 | 8 |
| Paris FC | 6th | 14 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Paris FC | 1.6 | 1.1 |
Auxerre vs Paris FC: FAQ
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
We make Auxerre 28% to win, the draw 26% and Paris FC 46%, so Paris FC are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Paris FC the shorter price. Our verdict is Auxerre or draw at 54%.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
We give both teams to score a 57% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Auxerre and 1.2 for Paris FC.
How many goals in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.77. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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