Ligue 1

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction

Ligue 1 · Monday 2 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Lorient

19:45

Kick-off (UTC)

Stade Brestois 29

Our verdict · Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw

Our chance61%

Best price1.60

Fair odds1.64

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Updated: was Lorient or draw 68%. Latest numbers: Stade Brestois 29 or draw 61%

Why

We make it 61%; the best price of 1.60 implies 63%
Expected goals 1.4–1.3 (most likely score 1-1)
Last five: Lorient DWWLD, Stade Brestois 29 LDWLL
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

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Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 preview

Lorient welcome Stade Brestois 29 on Monday 2 November in Ligue 1. In the standings, Stade Brestois 29 are 13th on 9 points from 8 games and Lorient 9th on 12 points from 8 games. Recent results matter here: Lorient have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DWWLD) and Stade Brestois 29 have lost three of their last five (LDWLL). In front of goal, Lorient score 0.9 and concede 0.8 a game on average; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.8 and concede 1.5. Our model expects around 1.4 goals for Lorient and 1.3 for Stade Brestois 29, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. We make Lorient 39% to win, the draw 29% and Stade Brestois 29 32%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 40%, 29% and 33%. Our verdict is Stade Brestois 29 or draw: we rate it at 61%, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Lorient win	39%	2.53	40%	-1%
Draw	29%	3.47	29%	-1%
Stade Brestois 29 win	32%	3.04	33%	-1%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10	48%	0%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.89	53%	-1%
Both teams to score	53%	1.80	56%	-5%
Not both to score	47%	2.00	50%	-6%
Lorient or draw	68%	1.44	69%	-3%
Stade Brestois 29 or draw	61%	1.60	63%	-2%
Either team to win	71%	1.36	74%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Lorient	1.4
Stade Brestois 29	1.3
Total	2.7

Most likely scores	Chance
Lorient 1–1 Stade Brestois 29	14%
Lorient 2–1 Stade Brestois 29	9%
Lorient 0–0 Stade Brestois 29	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Lorient	9th	12	8
Stade Brestois 29	13th	9	8

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Lorient	0.9	0.8
Stade Brestois 29	1.8	1.5

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	2.10 (48%)	1.76 (57%)
Cards 3.5	1.68 (60%)	2.22 (45%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29: FAQ

Who will win Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?

We make Lorient 39% to win, the draw 29% and Stade Brestois 29 32%, so Lorient are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Lorient the shorter price. Our verdict is Stade Brestois 29 or draw at 61%.

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?

We give both teams to score a 53% chance, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.80. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Lorient and 1.3 for Stade Brestois 29.

How many goals in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?

Our model expects about 2.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and under 2.5 at 52%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.10. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026, in Ligue 1.