Le Havre vs Lorient prediction
Le Havre
LorientNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 67%; the best price of 1.49 implies 67%
- Expected goals 0.8–1.3 (most likely score 0-1)
- Last five: Le Havre LLLLL, Lorient DWWLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Le Havre vs Lorient preview
Le Havre welcome Lorient on Sunday 8 November in Ligue 1. Le Havre sit 18th in the table on 2 points from 9 games, while Lorient are 10th with 12 points. That puts Lorient eight places higher. On form, Le Havre have lost each of their last five (LLLLL), while Lorient have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DWWLD). Le Havre average 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, compared with 0.9 and 0.8 for Lorient. Our model expects around 0.8 goals for Le Havre and 1.3 for Lorient, and 0–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. We make Le Havre 33% to win, the draw 28% and Lorient 38%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 35%, 28% and 38%. Our verdict is Lorient or draw: we rate it at 67%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.49. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre win | 33% | 2.85 | 35% | -5% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | 28% | +0% |
| Lorient win | 38% | 2.65 | 38% | +1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.07 | 48% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.88 | 53% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.75 | 57% | -9% |
| Not both to score | 48% | 2.00 | 50% | -4% |
| Le Havre or draw | 62% | 1.55 | 65% | -4% |
| Lorient or draw | 67% | 1.49 | 67% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 72% | 1.35 | 74% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Le Havre | 0.8 |
| Lorient | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Le Havre 0–1 Lorient | 15% |
| Le Havre 0–0 Lorient | 14% |
| Le Havre 1–1 Lorient | 14% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Le Havre | |
| Lorient |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 18th | 2 | 9 |
| Lorient | 10th | 12 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Lorient | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Le Havre vs Lorient: FAQ
Who will win Le Havre vs Lorient?
We make Le Havre 33% to win, the draw 28% and Lorient 38%, so Lorient are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Lorient the shorter price. Our verdict is Lorient or draw at 67%.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lorient?
We give both teams to score a 52% chance, against 57% implied by the best price of 1.75. Our expected goals are 0.8 for Le Havre and 1.3 for Lorient.
How many goals in Le Havre vs Lorient?
Our model expects about 2.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 46% and under 2.5 at 54%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.07. The single most likely score is 0–1.
What time does Le Havre vs Lorient kick off?
Le Havre vs Lorient kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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