Le Mans vs Monaco prediction
Le Mans
MonacoNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 59%; the best price of 1.64 implies 61%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.4, so 59% for over 2.5 and 60% for both to score
- Last five: Le Mans LDLLW, Monaco DLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.2 and 1.5 xG.
Our model gives Monaco the win 53%.
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Le Mans vs Monaco preview
Ligue 1 action on Sunday 8 November sees Monaco travel to face Le Mans. Le Mans sit 17th in the table on 7 points from 9 games, while Monaco are 4th with 15 points. That puts Monaco 13 places higher. On form, Le Mans have lost three of their last five (LDLLW), while Monaco have picked up one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five (DLDWD). Le Mans average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 0.9 for Monaco. On expected goals we have Le Mans at 1.2 and Monaco at 1.5, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Le Mans 23% to win, the draw 23% and Monaco 53%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 23%, 23% and 56%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 59%, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.64. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans win | 23% | 4.41 | 23% | +2% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | 23% | +1% |
| Monaco win | 53% | 1.80 | 56% | -4% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.64 | 61% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.46 | 41% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 1.57 | 64% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 40% | 2.40 | 42% | -4% |
| Le Mans or draw | 47% | 2.13 | 47% | -1% |
| Monaco or draw | 77% | 1.25 | 80% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 77% | 1.26 | 79% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.2 |
| Monaco | 1.5 |
| Total | 2.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Le Mans 1–1 Monaco | 14% |
| Le Mans 1–2 Monaco | 9% |
| Le Mans 0–1 Monaco | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Le Mans | |
| Monaco |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 17th | 7 | 9 |
| Monaco | 4th | 15 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Monaco | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Le Mans vs Monaco: FAQ
Who will win Le Mans vs Monaco?
We make Le Mans 23% to win, the draw 23% and Monaco 53%, so Monaco are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Monaco the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Monaco?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Le Mans and 1.5 for Monaco.
How many goals in Le Mans vs Monaco?
Our model expects about 2.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and under 2.5 at 41%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.64. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Le Mans vs Monaco kick off?
Le Mans vs Monaco kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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