Lens vs Marseille prediction
Lens
MarseilleNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.50 implies 67%
- Expected goals 1.7–1.5, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Lens LWWWL, Marseille WWWLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 70% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.7 and 1.5 xG.
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Lens vs Marseille preview
Lens welcome Marseille on Sunday 8 November in Ligue 1. Lens sit 8th in the table on 13 points from 9 games, while Marseille are 9th with 12 points. Both sides have won three of their last five: Lens LWWWL and Marseille WWWLL. In front of goal, Lens score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Marseille score 2.3 and concede 1.6. Our model expects around 1.7 goals for Lens and 1.5 for Marseille, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. We make Lens 46% to win, the draw 24% and Marseille 30%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 24% and 30%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 46% | 2.12 | 47% | -2% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | 24% | -1% |
| Marseille win | 30% | 3.30 | 30% | -1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.50 | 67% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.72 | 37% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.44 | 69% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 34% | 2.77 | 36% | -5% |
| Lens or draw | 70% | 1.38 | 72% | -4% |
| Marseille or draw | 54% | 1.81 | 55% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.27 | 79% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lens | 1.7 |
| Marseille | 1.5 |
| Total | 3.2 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lens 1–1 Marseille | 12% |
| Lens 2–1 Marseille | 9% |
| Lens 1–2 Marseille | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lens | |
| Marseille |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 8th | 13 | 9 |
| Marseille | 9th | 12 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Marseille | 2.3 | 1.6 |
Lens vs Marseille: FAQ
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
We make Lens 46% to win, the draw 24% and Marseille 30%, so Lens are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Lens the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Marseille?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Lens and 1.5 for Marseille.
How many goals in Lens vs Marseille?
Our model expects about 3.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.50. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lens vs Marseille kick off?
Lens vs Marseille kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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