Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes preview

Paris Saint Germain welcome Estac Troyes on Saturday 7 November in Ligue 1. Paris Saint Germain sit 1st in the table on 20 points from 9 games, while Estac Troyes are 17th with 5 points. That puts Paris Saint Germain 16 places higher. Estac Troyes come into it having not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (DLLLL); Paris Saint Germain have won each of their last five (WWWWW). In front of goal, Paris Saint Germain score 2.3 and concede 1.1 a game on average; Estac Troyes score 0.6 and concede 2.0.

Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.9 for Estac Troyes, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 50%. We make Paris Saint Germain 82% to win, the draw 12% and Estac Troyes 7%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 86%, 10% and 5%. Our verdict is Not both teams to score: we rate it at 50%, against 51% implied by the best price of 1.95. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.