Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon prediction
Stade Brestois 29
LyonNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%; the best price of 1.66 implies 60%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.1 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Stade Brestois 29 LDWLL, Lyon LWLWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.5 and 1.1 xG.
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Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon preview
Ligue 1 action on Sunday 8 November sees Lyon travel to face Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 sit 13th in the table on 9 points from 8 games, while Lyon are 5th with 14 points. That puts Lyon eight places higher. On form, Stade Brestois 29 have lost three of their last five (LDWLL), while Lyon have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LWLWD). Stade Brestois 29 average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, compared with 1.6 and 0.9 for Lyon. On expected goals we have Stade Brestois 29 at 1.5 and Lyon at 1.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Stade Brestois 29 34% to win, the draw 26% and Lyon 40%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 33%, 26% and 42%. Our verdict is Stade Brestois 29 or draw: we rate it at 60%, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.66. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 34% | 3.04 | 33% | +2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 26% | -1% |
| Lyon win | 40% | 2.36 | 42% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.76 | 57% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | 45% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 1.62 | 62% | -4% |
| Not both to score | 41% | 2.38 | 42% | -2% |
| Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 60% | 1.66 | 60% | -1% |
| Lyon or draw | 66% | 1.44 | 69% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.5 |
| Lyon | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Lyon | 14% |
| Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Lyon | 9% |
| Stade Brestois 29 2–1 Lyon | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | |
| Lyon |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 13th | 9 | 8 |
| Lyon | 5th | 14 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Lyon | 1.6 | 0.9 |
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon: FAQ
Who will win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon?
We make Stade Brestois 29 34% to win, the draw 26% and Lyon 40%, so Lyon are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Lyon the shorter price. Our verdict is Stade Brestois 29 or draw at 60%.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. Our expected goals are 1.5 for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.1 for Lyon.
How many goals in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.76. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Ligue 1.
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