Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction
Crystal Palace
LiverpoolNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 61%; the best price of 1.60 implies 63%
- Expected goals 1.2–2.1, so 61% for over 2.5 and 60% for both to score
- Last five: Crystal Palace LLLWD, Liverpool WWLWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.2 and 2.1 xG.
Our model gives Liverpool the win 56%.
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Crystal Palace vs Liverpool preview
Crystal Palace host Liverpool in the Premier League on Sunday 8 November. Crystal Palace sit 18th in the table on 7 points from 9 games, while Liverpool are 5th with 15 points. That puts Liverpool 13 places higher. On form, Crystal Palace have lost three of their last five (LLLWD), while Liverpool have won three of their last five (WWLWD). Crystal Palace average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.0 for Liverpool. On expected goals we have Crystal Palace at 1.2 and Liverpool at 2.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Crystal Palace 21% to win, the draw 23% and Liverpool 56%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 21%, 23% and 56%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 61%, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 21% | 4.66 | 21% | -1% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | 23% | 0% |
| Liverpool win | 56% | 1.80 | 56% | +0% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.60 | 63% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.42 | 41% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 1.57 | 64% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 40% | 2.38 | 42% | -6% |
| Crystal Palace or draw | 44% | 2.15 | 47% | -5% |
| Liverpool or draw | 79% | 1.25 | 80% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 77% | 1.26 | 79% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1.2 |
| Liverpool | 2.1 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 1–1 Liverpool | 10% |
| Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool | 10% |
| Crystal Palace 0–2 Liverpool | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | |
| Liverpool |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 18th | 7 | 9 |
| Liverpool | 5th | 15 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Liverpool | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: FAQ
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
We make Crystal Palace 21% to win, the draw 23% and Liverpool 56%, so Liverpool are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Liverpool the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Crystal Palace and 2.1 for Liverpool.
How many goals in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and under 2.5 at 39%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.60. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Premier League.
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