Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction
Sunderland
ChelseaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 54%; the best price of 1.80 implies 56%
- Expected goals 1.0–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Sunderland LDLLL, Chelsea WLWWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.0 and 1.2 xG.
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Sunderland vs Chelsea preview
Premier League action on Sunday 8 November sees Chelsea travel to face Sunderland. Sunderland sit 20th in the table on 5 points from 9 games, while Chelsea are 4th with 16 points. That puts Chelsea 16 places higher. Recent results matter here: Sunderland have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LDLLL) and Chelsea have won three of their last five (WLWWL). In front of goal, Sunderland score 0.8 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Chelsea score 2.1 and concede 1.7. Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Sunderland and 1.2 for Chelsea, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. We make Sunderland 27% to win, the draw 27% and Chelsea 46%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 27%, 27% and 47%. Our verdict is Sunderland or draw: we rate it at 54%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.80. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 27% | 3.70 | 27% | +1% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | 27% | +2% |
| Chelsea win | 46% | 2.15 | 47% | -2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.91 | 52% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 | 49% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.75 | 57% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 46% | 2.15 | 47% | -2% |
| Sunderland or draw | 54% | 1.80 | 56% | -2% |
| Chelsea or draw | 73% | 1.35 | 74% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 73% | 1.32 | 76% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.0 |
| Chelsea | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sunderland 1–1 Chelsea | 15% |
| Sunderland 0–0 Chelsea | 12% |
| Sunderland 0–1 Chelsea | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | |
| Chelsea |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 20th | 5 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 4th | 16 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Chelsea | 2.1 | 1.7 |
Sunderland vs Chelsea: FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?
We make Sunderland 27% to win, the draw 27% and Chelsea 46%, so Chelsea are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Chelsea the shorter price. Our verdict is Sunderland or draw at 54%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
We give both teams to score a 54% chance, against 57% implied by the best price of 1.75. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Sunderland and 1.2 for Chelsea.
How many goals in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.91. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sunderland vs Chelsea kick off?
Sunderland vs Chelsea kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Premier League.
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