Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Alverca
Casa PiaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 69%
- Expected goals 0.9–1.0, so 31% for over 2.5 and 40% for both to score
- Last five: Alverca LWWWL, Casa Pia LWLWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 70% combined.
One side is expected to struggle: 0.9 xG.
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Alverca vs Casa Pia preview
Alverca welcome Casa Pia on Saturday 7 November in the Primeira Liga. In the standings, Casa Pia are 17th on 7 points from 10 games and Alverca 8th on 11 points from 9 games. That puts Alverca nine places higher. Recent results matter here: Alverca have won three of their last five (LWWWL) and Casa Pia have lost three of their last five (LWLWL). Alverca average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, compared with 0.5 and 1.9 for Casa Pia. Our model expects around 0.9 goals for Alverca and 1.0 for Casa Pia, and 0–0 is the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 40%. We make Alverca 30% to win, the draw 34% and Casa Pia 36%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 69%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 30% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 34% | – | – | – |
| Casa Pia win | 36% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 69% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 40% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 60% | – | – | – |
| Alverca or draw | 64% | – | – | – |
| Casa Pia or draw | 70% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 66% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Alverca | 0.9 |
| Casa Pia | 1.0 |
| Total | 2.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alverca 0–0 Casa Pia | 16% |
| Alverca 1–1 Casa Pia | 15% |
| Alverca 0–1 Casa Pia | 13% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Alverca | |
| Casa Pia |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 8th | 11 | 9 |
| Casa Pia | 17th | 7 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Casa Pia | 0.5 | 1.9 |
Alverca vs Casa Pia: FAQ
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
We make Alverca 30% to win, the draw 34% and Casa Pia 36%, so Casa Pia are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 69%.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
We give both teams to score a 40% chance. Our expected goals are 0.9 for Alverca and 1.0 for Casa Pia.
How many goals in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our model expects about 2.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 31% and under 2.5 at 69%. The single most likely score is 0–0.
What time does Alverca vs Casa Pia kick off?
Alverca vs Casa Pia kicks off at 18:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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