Benfica vs Alverca prediction
Benfica
AlvercaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 67%
- Expected goals 2.0–1.5, so 67% for over 2.5 and 67% for both to score
- Last five: Benfica WLWWW, Alverca LWWWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 73% combined.
Expected goals 2.0–1.5, 3.5 in total.
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Benfica vs Alverca preview
Benfica welcome Alverca on Monday 2 November in the Primeira Liga. In the standings, Alverca are 8th on 11 points from 9 games and Benfica 2nd on 19 points from 8 games. That puts Benfica six places higher. Alverca come into it having won three of their last five (LWWWL); Benfica have won four of their last five (WLWWW). Benfica average 3.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.4 for Alverca. On expected goals we have Benfica at 2.0 and Alverca at 1.5, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. We make Benfica 49% to win, the draw 24% and Alverca 27%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 67%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 49% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – | – |
| Alverca win | 27% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 67% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 33% | – | – | – |
| Benfica or draw | 73% | – | – | – |
| Alverca or draw | 51% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 76% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Benfica | 2.0 |
| Alverca | 1.5 |
| Total | 3.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Benfica 1–1 Alverca | 10% |
| Benfica 2–1 Alverca | 9% |
| Benfica 1–2 Alverca | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Benfica | |
| Alverca |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 2nd | 19 | 8 |
| Alverca | 8th | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Alverca | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Benfica vs Alverca: FAQ
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
We make Benfica 49% to win, the draw 24% and Alverca 27%, so Benfica are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 67%.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?
We give both teams to score a 67% chance. Our expected goals are 2.0 for Benfica and 1.5 for Alverca.
How many goals in Benfica vs Alverca?
Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 67% and under 2.5 at 33%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Benfica vs Alverca kick off?
Benfica vs Alverca kicks off at 20:15 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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